BYTEC Guides · Article 6 of 8

AI and the future of work: what the 2026 numbers show

A lot is claimed about AI and the future of work. So far, the figures from Switzerland, Germany and research paint a sober picture: work is changing fast, the number of jobs slowly. The first place it shows is at career entry.

AS OF OCTOBER 2026 · 6 MIN. READ

How widespread AI is in Swiss and German companies

In Switzerland, 43% of people aged 15 to 88 have used generative AI at least once, 31% also for work (Swiss Federal Statistical Office, December 2025). Among SMEs, 35% deliberately use AI in their workflows, 39% are trying it out and 26% do not use it yet (AXA SME labour market study, September 2026, 336 SMEs surveyed).

For Germany there are three figures: 26% of companies with 10 or more employees (Eurostat, 2025 data), 54.5% (ifo Institute, May 2026) and 57% of companies with 20 or more employees (Bitkom, September 2026). This is not a contradiction. The surveys ask different questions, count different company sizes and measure at different times. What matters for your planning is the direction: at Bitkom the share rose from 20% in 2024 to 36% and then 57%.

AI and jobs in Switzerland: what has happened so far

The great wave of layoffs has not happened so far. In Switzerland, 7% of respondents say their company has cut jobs because of AI. 11% no longer fill positions that become vacant, and 18% of companies have created new AI-related roles. 42% cannot yet assess the effect (EY, May 2026, 604 respondents). Of the SMEs with AI experience, 47% expect time savings with no effect on headcount, and 12% expect to need fewer staff in future (AXA 2026).

Internationally the pattern is the same. In McKinsey's 2025 survey, 32% of respondents expected AI-related workforce reductions for the following year. One year later, 14% report that AI actually led to fewer employees (McKinsey, August 2026, 1,719 respondents). In Denmark, researchers linked surveys of 25,000 workers in eleven highly exposed occupations with register data on earnings and working hours. They found no measurable effect of AI chatbots on earnings or hours worked (Humlum and Vestergaard, May 2025).

Expectations are rising, however. For the coming year, 39% of McKinsey respondents expect AI to reduce their workforce, up from 32% the year before. In Germany, 45% of companies expect a slight and 12% a significant decline in their headcount over the next two years (Bitkom 2026). These are expectations, not measurements, and in the past they have been well above what then happened.

AI and entry-level jobs: where it shows first

The change is clearest among young people. In Switzerland, the share of job advertisements for career starters in 2025 was 32% lower than the average for 2019 to 2022. In AI-exposed occupations such as administration and HR, finance, marketing, purchasing and sales, it fell more sharply than elsewhere (jobs.ch AI Report 2026, analysis of 7.3 million job ads). The data show a correlation, not proof that AI is the only cause.

In the US, researchers at Stanford University reach a similar finding: employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations is 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers. Experienced workers show no such gap, and it arises mainly because fewer young people are hired, not through layoffs (Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, August 2026 version).

For SMEs this means: simple tasks that used to train young people, such as research, first drafts or data entry, are increasingly done by AI. If you want to keep training new talent, you need to redesign how people start.

What labour market studies show: tasks change faster than jobs

Worldwide, one in four workers is in an occupation where generative AI can take over part of the tasks. 3.3% of workers are in the highest exposure category. In high-income countries, 34% of employment is exposed overall, compared with 11% in low-income countries. The International Labour Organization concludes that most jobs will be transformed rather than replaced, because they contain tasks that need people (ILO, May 2025).

Employers worldwide expect nearly 40% of the skills required on the job to change by 2030. 77% plan to upskill their staff, and 41% plan to reduce their workforce where AI automates tasks (WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, more than 1,000 companies). These are expectations too.

Skills shortage: why SMEs need AI

At the same time, workers are in short supply. In Switzerland, the baby-boom generations are reaching retirement age while far fewer young people are entering the labour market (economiesuisse, March 2026). In this situation, AI is for most SMEs less a replacement for staff than a way to get more done with the same team. Whether that turns into money is a separate calculation: freed-up time is not yet profit (see Capacity is not profit).

What this means for your company

Look at tasks, not positions. Which activities in your workflows are routine work with text, data or documents? You will find examples in our AI use cases for six industries.
Enable your staff. In Germany, one company in four offers no AI training at all (Bitkom 2026). How to proceed in stages is described in Introducing AI in your company.
Rethink career entry. Bring apprentices and young staff into AI-supported workflows instead of leaving them only the tasks AI will soon take over.
Start with one workflow and measure. Where AI demonstrably helps today is shown in AI for SMEs: where it delivers measurable value.

Frequently asked questions

Will AI replace many jobs in the next few years?

Not on a large scale so far. According to EY, 7% of Swiss companies have cut jobs because of AI, while 18% have created new AI roles. Worldwide, actual reductions over the past year were well below what companies had expected a year earlier (McKinsey 2026).

Which occupations are most affected?

Mainly office work. The ILO sees the highest exposure in clerical occupations. In Switzerland, jobs.ch reports that the share of entry-level positions is falling particularly sharply in administration and HR, finance, marketing, purchasing and sales.

What should SMEs do now?

Set clear rules for using AI, train staff and start with a single, measured workflow. Then decide what to expand.

Sources

All figures checked against the original sources on 23 October 2026.

Would you like to know which tasks in your company are suited to AI? In an initial conversation we identify with you the three workflows that cost the most time. More about our approach: AI transformation for SMEs.

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